Surprisingly High The Bull Odds This Monday!

1. My reading of EUR/USD daily Head and Shoulders pattern gave me a bearish bias about the markets. However the bearish outlook may be threatened if this pair wins the next resistence Fib61.8@1.38251 by this Monday or the day after.

2. SPX daily looks as a bullish pennant (just a bit stretch) and on the way to upside it must win tons of converged resistances they are just inch above the Friday close. Also, the sell-off action of the Oct 31, Nov 1 and Nov 9 looks ugly that favors a bearish look of the chart. All together, my pure TA daily reading of SPX tends to a neutral outlook this Monday.

3. However It's surprising my statistic which gonna say "We are at very... very high odds to see an up day this Monday!". The statistic setting the daily price development like last 5 days (imagine a handwritten i) and the 5-th day close above the MA20. Data source TC2007 available from Jan 1963. It's 8 out of 10 we did see the 3-rd day closed in green.

Meanwhile with Yahoo data source, available from Jan 1950, It's 9 out of 11 we did see the 3-rd day closed in green.

4. Europe policy/political development: Italy austerity plan passed, Berlusconi resigned, Mario Monti (professor of economics and former European commissioner) asked to form a caretaker government led by technocrats. This is what the markets have been wanting. When Mr. Market finds his appetite he will try to get/buy more foods.

5. My trading idea: 1.+2.+3.+4. = Bullish
Bear: Plan may be delayed, may need more patience.
Bull: May be safer to buy the intraday low/pullback.
180-Turnaround: I must be ready for a 180-turnaround. If markets sell-off hard Monday, I'll swiftly join the bears.

Successful trading.

This Monday or next Monday, what do I mean here? I think most readers will read my blog on Monday so I am right according to ISO 8601, otherwise give me Islamic or Hebrew :-). Always ask your tolerance because I am a non native speaker and just begin to learn writing in English for a while.
http://en.wikipedia.org: Monday (Listeni/ˈmʌnd/ or /ˈmʌndi/) is the day of the week between Sunday and Tuesday. According to international standard ISO 8601 it is the first day of the work week. According to the Islamic and Hebrew calendars, Sunday is the first day of the week. The name of Monday is derived from Old English Mōnandæg and Middle English Monenday, which means "moon day".

No comments: