Short term is indecision mode in a long term bullish trend

SPX weekly looks as to form the wave 5 of the bullish trend initiated from March 2009. We can see the selling pressure when the price hit the bearish trend line initiated from October 2007. This bearish trend line (light blue) is the major resistance to the bullish trend and wave 5 above said.

SPX daily shows signs of weakness after it's price met the major resistance line: 4 consecutive days in red, RSI and Stochastic they made tops and downward crossed over the signal lines in the overbought territory. That says might be more weaknesses or at least a consolidation ahead.

Trading setup for 2/1/2012
Watching the solidity of 1301 to favor the bulls and the weakness of the major resistance line to confirm the longterm bullish trend.
Cautious bulls may like to day trade the long side as long as the 1301 holds and the major resistance line is still in effect.
Aggressive Bears may like to short at weakness when the price could not break out the major trend line.

SPY might test the 132.60 today

No! The sell off hard from the day's high is seen from europe to US markets and EURUSD . May be some kind of a big pullback starting from here.


Bulls are fine as long as SPY is able to defend 130.11 (or SPX - 1301)

I maintain my view to stay with the trend and I only change my trading setup if bears could break down the support 130.11(SPY)/1301(SPX).

My stock picks: JRCC  SPRD  BHI  RBCN  AVTI  CI  ITT


Seems that the best way to play this bullish market is to hold long positions as long as prices are above the trend line drawing from May to July 2011

It seems to me that the bulls are not ready to end the party at this moment. DJ-30 has already won the bearish trend line drawing from October 2007 to May 2011 and may want to extend the bullish development that began from March 2009. Is it forming the 5Th EW of this bullish move? If it becomes real, the rally of this 5Th EW may extend to May 2012 (of cause with some pullbacks – considered as chances to buy).
Personally, I think this suggestion will become real if the SP500 confirms by closing above 1,333 for a few days.

Another support to equity markets seems coming from the EURUSD
My forecast a few days ago was to say the 1.3055 target. It was confirmed and seems that bulls want to do more. My next target would be 1.3515. Let's wait and see.

My trading setup for 1/27/2012
Seems that the best way to play this bullish market is to hold long positions as long as prices are staying above the trend line drawing from May to July 2011.
My stock picks: JRCC  SPRD  BHI  RBCN  AVTI


Is it time to book my profit?

All my stock picks going well. It's the moment I take money off the table. The Lunar Holidays is the good time to gamble and if you win, you would better think about to quit the casino to protect your result


Tuesday 1/24/2012: Orderly selling. Intraday bottom seen in Europe markets

Tuesday 1/24/2012: Orderly selling. Intraday bottom seen in Europe markets.
Stock picks: VRA  SFLY  HL  ABX  PWER  SPN.
Someone must be very happy if he took DMND with me


The EURUSD rebound probably up to 1.3055 will keep heat for this bullish trend

US markets may close in red with a slight pullback. That will soften the overbought states of the indexes.
My stock pick is ABX.

The bearish trend lines of DJ-30 and SP-500 that began in May 2011 have been broken up and DJ-30 has stayed well above the trend line for 4 days, meanwhile SP-500 has stayed above it for 2 days. DAX also broke up the bearish trend line began in July 2011 staying well 5 days above it and begins to challenge the MA200.

EUR/USD looks seemingly want to challenge the 1.3055 where it could find the confluence of MA50 with the target of the diamond bottom reversal pattern

These bullish developments may enjoy a few more days before any substantial pullback.

Trading setup for 1/23/2012
Holding long positions until it seems wrong or is proved wrong.


A pullback might be seen, however it is healthy for a bullish trend and also a good chance to buy

10:00 AM
My stock picks (For swing trade, not day trade): PWER  NVDA  HL  DMND  ANR
PWER - bullish flag

DMND - Bullish crossover

HL - Fundamental, oversold, consolidation at bottom

NVDA - Fundamental, higher lows, challenging MA50, may be a W formation

Nasdaq-100 and DJ-30 broke up the final bearish trend line and are holding well above it.

SPX just broke up the final bearish resistant line and might show some kind of hesitant at this point, however it would be a chance to buy any dip/pullback here.

EUR/USD is facing a profit taking after a consecutive 4 days rally, however I tend to think that the diamond bottoms reversal pattern will work well and the target of this rebound would be 1.3055.

Trading setup for 1/20/2012
No reversal forecast. I just want to follow the trend until Mr. market tells me that I am wrong.
I imagine that the bullish trend will be long alive for this earning season and plan to buy any dip.


SPY may challenge the bearish resistance line 5/2/11-7/7/11 at 131.30 today.

12:21 PM
Stock picks: DMND  HL  NVDA  PWER  ANR

10:02 AM
Looks like some signs of profit taking from the charts of Gold, Silver, Crude and EUR/USD

Not much to say besides to admission that bullish sentiment was strong. Nothing could refrain market participants from buying. Only a wave of profit taking could send markets back from the high, however I don't know when.

SPY daily: The cap may be the the bearish resistance line 5/2/11-7/7/11, then the upper line of the rising channel.

SPY 5min S&R boxes: [129.57 - 130.08] & [131.06 - 131.34].

Trading setup for 1/19/2012
I would have made lots of money if I had been patience enough with the long side.
Is it time to look beyond the one day or two day trade? I don't have the answer yet right now!
At this high level of the market may be a few better chances are ahead?
Anyway to buy some selected stocks is a not bad idea.


Sell the gap up and buy the dip that's what we've seen

6:32 PM
While all my readings tend to continues the bullish, I did closed all my longs (BAK, WYNN, HL, SKM, TWO & KWK) acording to my observation last 2 days "Sell the gap up/rally buy the dip". It is okay and not worth a blame. 
However, when I saw some weakness in Europe markets with "a probable top" haunted my mind, I let my bears took risks with a pilot short and 
I got a fine bill sent to my bears who tried to run before the green sign.

11:39 AM
If you want a pilot short, you may want to use the proxy TVIX? I did.

11:05 AM
Sold out all on rally and will buy back on dip.

5:33 AM
Paid your attention to the possibility to form a diamond bottoms reversal pattern, which might lead to a huge rebound of EURUSD and that in turn favors stock markets.

Nasdaq-100 and DJ-30 broke up the final bearish trend lines, could they hold it?

SPY looks to follow a rising channel and seemingly wants to win the final bearish trend line at about 131.40.

Trading setup for 1/18/2012
I am awaiting 131.40 to be broken up by SPY to confirm an absolute state of US bullish markets. However, the intraday development showed interests to sell at high prices. That pull me back to an indecision mode.
Apparently, sell the gap up and buy the dip is what active traders are making profits these days.


Europe markets behaviour next two days, before Tuesday, will be critical for the prevailing US bullish mode

Tuesday 9:33 AM
Stock picks: BAK  HL  TWO   WYNN
Monday 10:42 PM update
Europe markets was resuming the rebound from the Friday's selloff bottoms. May be markets just want to give the S&P downgrade verdict a shrug and say "We had already discounted it into the price 4 months ago. It is not new!"

Following the bullish trend in this market from Dec 21, I am getting a yelow light by the way market opened Friday. After an hour of selloff, it had been a tug of war for 3 hous, then the last 2 hours market belonged to the bulls who bought the dip.

My critical alarm-3 got tested 2 times, held, but finally bulls tried their best to pierce up through alarm-2 and sat just an inch above the alarm-1 level (128.95/128.00). Bulls reclaimed back about 3/5 of what they lost in the first hour selloff.
The way bears satisfied and let bulls made intraday higher highs and higher lows appeared to be a hope for bulls next Tuesday.

However as US markets are still driven by the Europe ones, I think Europe markets behaviour next two days will be critical for the prevailing US bullish mode this Tuesday.

My S&R boxes: [127.66 - 128.10] - [129.67 - 130.16].

Trading setup for 1/17/2012
Undecision mode to me.
Close below 128.10 will encourage bears.
Close below 127.66 might be a short term trend reversal (or at least more pullbacks ahead), for me, and any rebound next day will be short.
Close above 129.67 will add more hopes on bulls.
Close above 130.16 will maintain the bullish trend.


We may see a higher-high then a saw-teeth and a minor pullback as a breather

I am not preoccupied by trying to suggest where is the top. Instead I try to understand why the market is so bullish. I would like to link the bullishness with some facts
1- Investors were relieved on Thursday after Spain's solid debt auction at sharply lower borrowing cost. That can be translated that the confident is restoring.
2- Ultra-cheap funding from the European Central Bank which provided banks with nearly half a trillion euros of three-year money late last year. That money must find somewhere to go.
3- Data showing US economic is improving.

SPY daily: As a bullish fan I like the chat so much and I always call buy on pullbacks as I did last few days. And as a cautious bull I have my backup plans with alarm levels showed on the 30min chart.

SPY 30min: My suggested bullish scenario is a rally at open to about 130.16 then a hesitation saw-teeth next and a minor pullback to end the day.
In case of a dive at open, I will keep close attention to alarm levels 128.80/128.40/128.00 showed on the chart.

SPY 5min S&R boxes [128.72 - 129.05] & [130.16 - 130.42].

Just want to review how beautifully my S&R boxes worked yesterday.

My trade setting for 1/13/2012
Buy selective stocks in the bullish scenario.
In case of a dive at open, I will make a U turn if 1280.00 is unable to hold.

We may see the third day closed in green after the gap up

10:02 AM
Stock picks: BAK

SPY daily: Looks more bullish with the gap of the previous day almost maintained. Cautious bulls may  pay attention to the fact that a numbers of indicators which are going into the oversold territory.

SPY 5min: The sales on yesterday was met by steady demands, the pullback was stoped at 128.52 and no second test at this level. That price action made me expecting that the bullish momentum may maintain today
My S&R boxes: [128.55 - 128.86] & [129.65 - 130.26].

My Trade Setting for 1/12/2012
Aggressive Bulls: Buy selective stocks on consolidation or pullback.
Bears: Wait and see.


A pullback may be seen however it may still be a chance to buy if 128.18 is respected

6:00 PM
Another bright dawn of my in Vietnam

12:07 PM
Looks like SPY is in the forming of a descending broadening wedge that favors the break upward.
My stock picks: CTRP  HL  KWK  MCP  

SPY daily: Looks very bullish with the 0.87% gap up. Cautious bulls may need to pay attention to the sell-on-rally-reading from the  intra-day price action and a number of indicators which are going into the oversold territory.

SPY 5min: My S&R boxes are [128.18 - 128.63] & [129.65 - 130.16].

My trading setting for 1/11/2012
A pullback may be seen however it may still be a chance to buy if 128.18 is respected. However cautious bulls may not chase a rally.
Aggressive Bears: May try pilot shorts at ~130 if any.


US markets are expected to bounce up like what Asia and Europe markets are doing

11:02 AM
Sorry! CYOU very bad! Forget about this CYOU!

10:14 AM
Markets go as expected. My stock picks today: MCP  CYOU

SPY daily: Let me repeat what I said from yesterday update:
"11:59 AM
I think intraday shorts finished. I expect Europe markets will be bouncing and keep the green tomorrow. EURUSD may behave the same. Consider to load longs...".
If the price can get through and close above 128.38, I think this bullish move may maintain the momentum for 2-3 days.

SPY 5min: My S&R boxes for today [127.30 - 127.77] & [128.70 - 129.20].

My trade setting for 1/10/2012
Bulls: Buy on any pullback that respects 127.00.
Bears: Wait and see.


Bulls showed a kind of sluggish in the Friday session and that may continue today

07:21 PM
I turned on my laptop and was glad to see my dawn is welcomed by this green. My stock picks a few day ago got RBCN. It soared 11.05% today after a jump of 8.6% on Friday. I pray for my SFLY wishing it a same fate as RBCN.

11:59 AM
I think intraday shorts finished. I expect Europe markets will be bouncing and keep the green tomorrow. EURUSD may behave the same. Consider to load longs.
My stock pick: SFLY  BAK  S (I am a bargain hunter).

SPY daily in general picture still looks bullish, however intraday price action seems sluggish. Bears, being fueled by the 4 consecutive plunge days of EURUSD, may attack hard today. The 1st support in case of a hard pullback is the MA200 @126.00. Next support is the bearish resistance line 7/7/11-7/21/11. The final support for this Bullish Trend is the bullish support line 10/4/11-11/25/11.

SPY 30min seems that a triangle is in the forming.

SPY 5min: My S&R boxes for today [126.40 - 126.91] & [128.22 - 128.71].

Trade setting for 1/9/2012
Expecting a negative price action today. It may be a sluggish or a hard pullback.
Bears: Short if US-markets open in red and Europe-markets are in pullback mode.
Bulls: No buy if a deeper than 1% pullback is seen.
However, if bulls were to add strength and have pierced through 128.38 then
Bulls: Long again.


Bulls proved resilient last 2 days and may try to make a new high for 4 days

12:43 PM update
I think it's moment to take money off the table. Most of my stock picks got profit: WDR  FNFG  RBCN SYMC...

12:07 PM update
Europe markets closed in red (the way they couldn't hold the green looks bad), EURUSD seems unable to make a bounce. It made me change my view: Bulls may try their best to make a slight green however it would be very difficult to make a new high for 4 days.

SPY daily: Chart reading remains bullish, my indicators reading shows a numerous of bullish signs and a few of them are approaching overbought territory. US markets should be encouraged by the bouncing mode today of Europe markets and EURUSD.

SPY 5min: My S&R box today are [127.000 - 127.40] - [128.50 - 129.25].

Trade setting for 1/6/2012
Seems to me that market may try to make a new high for 4 days. My target is about 129.25.
I may consider to reduce long positions at target, however I would not do any short. I consider a shorting now at high target as a front running!


We may see another minor pullback and it still be a buy

12:17 PM Update
Market reaction as we anticipated. The bounce is impressive. Those who bought the pullback can see some gains now.
My screening show some interesting stocks for long: MFA  RBCN  SYMC  WDR  

SPY daily: Just repeat what I read from yesterday chart "My indicators reading shows a lot of bullish signs and most of them are not overbought yet. That makes me expect that there is no imminent substantial/big pullback and the price may be contained in box (126.82 - 130.16) for a few days more".
And another thing supports my bullish reading is EUR/USD deeply dived yesterday, however US markets could still make a slightly green day.

SPY 5min: Yesterday's update suggested a formation of a descending broadening wedge. My boxes today are [126.82 - 127.30] - [128.40 - 129.25].

My trade setting for 1/5/2012
Maintaining bullish call "Any pullback shallower than 126.82 is a chance to buy".


Market may be in a narrow band today for consolidation

7:59 PM Update
Some ones may remember my stock suggestion 01/03/2012: CZZ  FNFG  OPTR. I made a cut-lost from OPTR today but I think will make profit on two left. 

11:51 AM Update
Watch for the possibility to form a descending broadening wedge that favors the bulls.

SPY daily looks very bullish with the jump of 1.59%. My indicators reading shows a lot of bullish signs and most of them are not overbought yet. That makes me expect that there is no imminent substantial/big pullback and the price may be contained in box (126.82 - 130.16) for a few days more.

SPY 5min: Watch for a possibility of a bull flag formation (higher odds to break to the upside). The support and resistance boxes may be (126.82 - 127.30) - (128.40 - 128.86)

My trade setting for 01/04/2012
I think any pullback shallower than 126.82 is a chance to buy.
Cautious Bulls: Buy if bull flag or resistance box is pierced to the upside.
Aggressive Bulls: Buy at support lines of bull flag or resistance box.