Rebound imminent?

The low of last Friday was at 1403.28. Because this low almost satisfies the multi-supports:
Fib 50=1401.88
Lead Spand B=1399.96
Support Line (Blue)=1403.00,
A short-term rebound seems due, meanwhile the downside risk remains.
A bounce, if any, would target 1426.60-1433.70.


Bounce and drop?

If I see a bounce before reaching 1400.00. I suspect that bounce would be capped by around 1422.00, then most probably, price may drop again to try the support 1400.00 or lower (strong support MA-200 around 1376.00).
This process may extend for a few days.


Can bulls find a good support at around 1400.00 before the MA-200?

Here is 1400.00 stands for:
- The support line in the next few days span (blue) formed by connecting the high of Oct. 11, 2007 and the high of April 2, 2012.
- The lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud (Leading Span B).
- The 50% of the retracement of the impulsive rise from 1329.24 to 1474.51.


1420.00 hold or not?

A good bounce was seen when the index registered a lower low at 1422.06.
I will maintain the views of multi-zigzag correction from the high Sep.14 as long as 1420.00-1425.00 could hold. It means a continuous-bounce may target 1460.00-1463.00.
If bulls can not hold 1420.00 today, I suspect that the prices will go to test the MA-200 at around 1376.00 in next few days.


The descending channel formed from Sept. 14 (purple) is important

With the LOD on Friday at 1429.85, There exists a possibility that the correction from 1474.51 is not a single ABC (Zigzag) but could be double or triple zigzag.
With this approach, the index could make another dip to contact with the lower line of the descending channel formed from Sept. 14 (purple) and bounce up to the upper line of the channel before bouncing down again. This scenario could expect a lower target around 1420.00-1425.00 before a bounce up to around 1460.00.
The more bullish scenario is to say the correction ABC had finished and 1464.02 was the end of the 1-ST wave and 1429.85 would mark the end of the 2-ND wave. Bulls need to take away 1464.02 to confirm the scenario.

The Elliott wave counting on the 15 min chart would be changed like this:


Continue to bounce or a further pullback possibly to the area 1450.00-1445.60

Yesterday I said: "we may get short-term-target for bull as to end the wave iii=(v) at 1463.20 or 1470.50. I suspect that 1470.50 would be more possible..."
The price movement looks that wave iii=(v) had finished at 1464.02 just ticks higher the value 1463.20.
The pullback printed a LOD at 1452.63. This may be already or not yet the target of the corrective move of the wave iv. So we have two scenarios:
1. Price continue to bounce from yesterday's low to make a wave v.
2. Price will make a further pullback possibly to the area 1450.00-1445.60 to finish the corrective wave iv before resuming the bullish move to make a wave v.

Sorry for the chart posting late! I lost the internet connection, then had to go out and just be back.


Support: 1456.49, target: 1463.20 or 1470.50?

As the price movement unfolds, the rise from the end of the minor-wave ii at 1427.24 looks to be able to divide by minuet-waves. If this can be the best interpretation, we may get short-term-target for bull as to end the wave iii=(v) at 1463.20 or 1470.50.
I suspect that 1470.50 would be more possible meanwhile the 1456.49 would be a good support before the target.


Pullback if any would target firstly 1444.00

11:45 AM
There was only a minor pullback at open today. Bull is really strong! Can a pullback happen tomorrow? I doubt it. Seems peoples accept to buy high to sell higher. The 5 min chart looks a bull flag forming? Bulls are very probably going to challenge 1470.96 before a meaningful pullback. 
I got time to recalculate the maximum target of the minor 5-wave pattern that I labelled from i to v and I found that the max-value of v can be 1456.12, however it is not the imperative and v could be legitimately finished at 1455.51, the yesterday's high.
The big question to me now is where would be the target/firm-support of a pullback if it happens. My first suggest would be 1444.00. Let see!

Expecting a pullback around the area 1442.88-1444.00

10:55 AM
Bulls don't want a pullback at 1444.00. Instead they pushed the prices up to the area 1448.25-1453.61 I mentioned yesterday. Bulls are strong, however technically, the rally looks a bit stretch. The expecting pullback must happen around 1453.61 +/- by late today or tomorrow. So, it's not safe to chase the price at this 1449.xx.
The rise from the low 1425.53 looks like a minor 5-wave pattern. I don't know if this is the beginning of a bigger impulsive movement or it's only a bounce of ABC form of a bigger decline from 1474.51. In any case, I expect to see a pullback around the area 1442.88-1444.00 to make a wave 2 of the impulsive rise or B of the correction.
Seems we are going to see a price pop-up at the open today but I consider it as a selling but not a chasing. The buying-chance would come after we see a pullback to a reasonable level.


The rebound if any would challenge 1448.25-1453.61 in next few days?

The Friday I said "If we see a dip and the area 1427.00-1428.00 holds well for the day, I think I would buy this". The Friday's low was lower than 1427.00 but the index closed the day at 1428.88. I considered it as positive and it could be a turning point when the drop from 1470.96 to 1425.53 looks 5-waves pattern finished (more detail analysis can be found at  http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/).
The other positive points I noticed from Friday's markets are: DJ-20 up +0.88%, DJ-30 up +0.02%, Nasdaq 100 index up +0.03%  and the flagship Apple Inc up +0.26%.
Now when the New York time is 6.40 AM, I can see Europe markets and Euro up more than 0.40% - a very good sign for the US markets at open.
There is news that Apple Inc will unveil the iPad Mini on October 23 ttp://themarketsareopen.blogspot.com/2012/10/aapl-apple-inc-nasdaqaapl-round-up-ipadmini.html
I expect no big selling pressure on AAPL before that October 23.
For a very short-term challenge/target of this rebound I think the Fib 38.2% at 1442.88 would be closely watched before the next area at 1448.25-1453.61.


1427.00-1428.00 critical supports

Bulls made a big jump at Thursday's open however couldn't hold the gain they made after 11.00am. It was a credit given to bears.
The 1427.00-1428.00 area which is the confluence of the lower line of the rising channel, the BB 20x2 and the MA50 remains the critical support for bulls.
For those who believe that prices' behavior after Sept. 14 is an ABC correction mode, C is near or already in and it's time to rebound or a small dip/consolidation before a rebound.
If we see a dip and the area 1427.00-1428.00 holds well for the day, I think I would buy this.
If we see a rise, I think a short term target for day-trade to care would be the yesterday's high at 1443.90.


The lower-line of the rising channel as well as the MA50 are critical supports for bulls

Welcome back to my blog dear visitors, I enjoy so much my tour to Amsterdam, Brussel, Paris, Rome and Munich. A lots of things to see to admire and to think about.

Back to the market forecast, I admit that my Elliott counting for wave 5 extended and a short-term target at 1494.00 was not correct. Instead, bears had done a good job to keep prices under a consolidation and correction for last 12 days. Now with yesterday's low at 1430.64 approaching the lower line of the rising channel initiated from 1266.74 - June 4, approaching the support Moving Average 50 and met with the lower Bollinger Bands 20/2, bears' duties expected going to finish and a rebound is imminent.

If a rebound happens today and the price could print around or more than 0.50%, I expect the first target of bulls could be 1455.00.
If the prices close in red, the lower-line of the rising channel as well as the MA50 are critical supports.