I need to modify the scores system:
The old: Refer to my post 11/21/2011.
The new: It's the simplest. It's the difference of the close and open prices of the positions when my setting triggered. Ex, my setting opened short SPY@118.00 on Nov 23, 2011 and will try to close it at 115.80 in the next trading day. Should it happens, the setting will score 2.20 points.
Reviewing my Game Setting Wednesday:
I had expected a rebound to pick up some profit and to be able to get into shorts at safer prices. However it seems that this scenario remains only in imagination.
Bears: Short if SPY < 118.5. Overnight if Europe markets are in red. => Triggered @118.00.
Bulls: Long if SPY > 120.35 and Europe markets are in green.
1. EURUSD daily (11:05 PM, Nov 24 continuing) guided by a descending channel and is a continuation of a Head&Shoulders pattern. Seems it's idea for those who target 1.3146.
2. SPY hourly. It's obvious that the major bearish channel is unable to help an orderly retreat of Bulls. A steeper bearish channel is forming and it looks dangerous. No any substantial buying. There just a little hope about a limited bounce or a consolidation at the support 115.83 of Fib61.8. New resistances ~ 118.5 - 119.20.
3. Good news and bad news
German borrowing costs rise above U.K.'s
Fitch cuts Portugal to junk status
Dexia takes emergency funding
S&P getting closer to downgrading Japan
China: factory output growth to slow
3. My Game Setting (May be changed 1-2 hours before the markets open)
I tend to think that SPX/SPY will touch the support level at Fib61.8% today. I guess that Bears will take a short breather after the 115.83 and markets will be in a small bounce or consolidation before a further slide.
Bears: Short at a rebound when SPY > 118.00.
Bulls: Take a break.
My SPY@118.00 short position opened on Nov 23, 2011: If market slide below 115.83, will try to cover @115.66. If 115.66 missed, will try to cover below 115.83. If Bears cannot win the 115.83 today, the position will be hold.
Update the cover target of the SPY short: 115.83
Europe Markets bounce well. Must respect this bounce. Cover SPY short @117.50. Adjust the Re-Short target @118.5.
With Europe Markets bounce more than 1.20% (CAC-40, DAX, FTSE-100) I think we may get a chance to short SPY at a better price than the one I covered @118.5.