Maintain the short-term target 1380 before the weekend 3/3/2012

No reason to sell off. Watch my boxes working.

SPX hourly
The medium-term is strengthen its uptrend. I maintain the short-term target 1380 for SPX before the weekend 3/3/2012

Trading setup for 2/29/2012
The simple way to make profit these days is to follow the uptrend. Buy the dip. Adjusting up my stop-loss to protect the profit. Sector rotation if necessary.


1380 would be short term target after 1370.58 has been visited on Monday

SPX hourly
To help a better evaluation of SPX movement, I will break it's rising channel into 2 small ones. If I did it last post, my support box could be more precise. Anyway, as expected, the Monday action was very bullish, the target 1370.58 mentioned tested, and who sold dip would regret.

Trading setup for 2/28/2012
Following the trend remains my first choice. Watch closely the light-blue channel and I will buy any dip to lower line.
My short term target (within 3-4days): 1380 - It's about 0.9% from Monday's close.


1426-SPX may be a medium-term target and it's 4% distance as we are in a bullish market.

SPX weekly
We are in the bullish market with all US major indexes have broken up the descending line connecting the highs of Oct, 2007 and May, 2011. I would like to propose a scenario that we may see a forming of the major wave 3 of the bullish cycle originated from March 2009 and for a medium-term target we may aim to 1426.00. To get to 1426.00 we may need 4, 6, or even 8 weeks.
For an imminent and important pullback scenario from around 1370.58, we may need a negative geopolitical event which plays the role of a catalyst.

2/27/2012 Trading Setup
Following the trend is my choice. A dip that respects the lower line of the mini rising channel is a buy.


I just got an appendix removed after an appendicitis. I think I am unable to do my daily market hobby untill Sunday 26.

:) :) :)
However, I got a special advice to the traders who want to protect his money when he experiences a fever (hot mix with cold) and an abdominal pain mix with backache. My advice is to go to hospital as soon as possible.
:-) :-) :-)


A higher high then a pullback may be seen

Bulls are supported by US data and the Greek hope. A cautious participant may wonder about a pullback next Monday if the outcome from Europe shows that an interim bailout solution will be applied and the final one should be suspended until April after the Greek Election.
I would like to cash out all my long positions and have good sleeps the weekend.


One more red day is possible. Markets may be in consolidation if 1334.47-SPX is respected

Bull looks resilient. My assumption of a red day seems wrong.

Seems to me that one more red day is possible.
Markets may be in consolidation if 1334.47-SPX is respected. Otherwise, it may be more pullbacks ahead if the price finds itself closed below 1334.47 today.


More warning signs from the view of market breadth

T2107-Market breadth (Percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average) is giving warning signs of downward crossover from the high.

T2108 (Percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is showing a negative divergent when it has been standing almost unchanged for 20days meanwhile MACD and RSI has been showing weakness for 12days.
Also pay attention to the Bollinger Bands that are converged. That means a break out is imminent  and in this case, the direction must be down side.

Smart moneys are finding their way to the opposite side of the market direction or to the volatility tools. Watch good bounces of EDZ, FAZ, TZA, TVIX and VXX.

My personal problem:
My performance for the 2012 measured by capital gain shrank from 17% to 10% after 5 days just because I remain in the long side (with reshuffle). Major indexes keep advancing with support of heavy weighed stocks meanwhile small stocks dive! This is a dangerous sign for retailers who prefer high beta stocks at this moment.

Today would tell short-term top was in already or just one more push up to be called short-term top.


What happened yesterday was exactly as I expected.
Just want to reiterate that Bull is fine as long as the lower line of the mini uptrend channel initiated from Dec 21 is respected.
I'd like to repeat my guest that bull may show more strength by winning 1354.32 in 2 days (from Monday), otherwise, a consolidation may be ahead.
Not much to say today except I want to show a bullish scenario and an alternative bearish one in the chart.


The rebound from Feb 10-Low will be continuing with the support from Greek Austerity Bill

The dip on Feb 10 was a normal bull-relax at an overbought state but catalyzed by the mess from the Greek debt solution. Anyway, a cautious bull must take this as a warning sign.
I think the rebound from Feb 10-Low will be continued thanks to the support from Greek Austerity Bill.
Bull is fine as long as the lower line of the mini uptrend channel initiated from Dec 21 is respected.
I guest that bull may show more strength by winning 1354.32 in 2 days, otherwise, a consolidation may be ahead.

As an EW novice I would like to present my combination of EW counts with the Ascending Broadening Right Angle Pattern. May I expect a target from 1360.xx - 1370.58 (1370.58 = May 2,2011-High) for this combination? Let's see.

For the 2/13/2012 day trade I would pay my attention to 1337.35 - 1340.64 as supports and 1,348.00 - 1,351.30 as resistances.


The best buying opportunity may be [1340.30 - 1343.00] if the dip could visit 1340.30 level, refrain and rebound from it.

World markets showed signs of a slight dip (may be a consolidation ahead) and the US markets may do the same to relax the overbought state.

Trading setup for 2/10/2012
Day trader may pay attention to [1344.32 - 1347.14] as supports and [1354.32 - 1356.48] as resistances.
The best buying opportunity may be [1340.30 - 1343.00] if the dip could visit 1340.30 level, refrain and rebound from it.


Bulls look resilient. That raises the expectation they could win targets 1353.40 and 1356.48 today

SPX: Bulls look resilient. That raises the expectation they could win targets 1353.40 and 1356.48 today.
Europe markets are advancing 0.30-0.70% as Greek leaders failed early on Thursday to agree on reforms and austerity measures, the price of a bailout to avoid a messy default (Markets ready to accept Greek's default?). EURUSD is making new high in 51 trading days. Both this if maintained today would certainly favor the US stock markets.

Trading setup for 2/9/2012
Buy and looking for the targets [1,353.40 - 1,356.48] if the supports [1342.00 - 1345.25] are respected.


SPX is following a baby uptrend channel and heading to the near-term target 1,356.48

SPX daily (take reference 2/5/2012 post) shows the formation of the EW5 of a long-term uptrend initiated from March 2009. Price is following a baby uptrend channel and heading to the short-term target 1,356.48 (the high of 7/7/2011) before any attempt to challenge higher levels.

Trading settup for 2/8/2012
Looks like SPX broke out a Descending Broadening Wedge and the text book target is about 1,353.40.
Buy for the target 1,353.40 or higher if the supports [1,343.50 - 1,345.00] are respected.


I would like to wait 1 or 2 more days for the second bailout for Greece's debt becomes clear.

Ooh la la! A rebound hard from the dip. Bulls control the market. I may open some longs positions.
My stock picks: ATVI  BBY  CTRP  DEXO  EXC  UPL

The uptrend is healthy. Maintain what I read the market in the post 2/05/2012.
A beautifull bouncing seen from the intraday lows in Europe and US markets on Monday 2/6/2012.
Seems bulls want to say: "This overbought is not extreme and still gets more to go" and "Greece is already default with 70% hair cut agreement, so who cares about it any more?".
But me, as a cautious trader, I would like to wait 1 or 2 more days for the second bailout for Greece's debt becomes clear.
If I can't hold myself from the desire to trade, I will limit to day trade only.


Medium term bullish has been established! And the market's focus next week should be Greece's debt

Seems further discounted prices for bulls might be found in next few days. It's just my vague guess!

Nasdaq is way too bullish by making it's all time high, DJ-30 has closed 10 consecutive days above its major resistance/bearish trend line (Oct 2007 - May 2011).
SPX has just closed its first day above the major resitance/bearish trend line, however by combining all market's activities, I belive that a medium term bullish has been established. The best trade is to follow the trend. The smart bullishers will consider to lighten long positions to have a better welcoming a pullback.
My first thought is to expect a sustainable bullish trend extended untill May 2012 before any important correction.

But what about a pullback that normally happens after the market's showing its overbought state?
I think it all depends on the evolutions of Greece's debt rescue.
We may see a normal, not very deep pullback, after a positive debt deal outcome expected in few working days coming.
In case Greece policy makers could not get through with Euro zone officials for the second financing package? I am sure this will lead to a sharp pullback that may threat the support line (~1,280) of the wave 5.

Day traders may pay attention to SPX - 1,356.48 (July 7, 2011 high) as a resistance and 1,333.00 as a support next Monday.


Looks as market consolidation was confirmed with yesterday's price action and it is good for bulls

My stock picks: CI  MO  RRD  SPLS  SXL  YGE

EURUSD looks as it wants to test the 1.3234 (the high of 1/27/2012) and if succesfully, the next target may be about 1.3333 - the daily MA100. These actions will favor the US markets.

SPY might want to challenge the major bearish trend line (about ~133.30 today) drawing from October 2007 to May 2011 by inching up day by day.
Please refer to my post 1/27/2012 to sense more the bullish reading.


Can it be a consolidation instead of a big pullback?

SPY: If we see a pullback today, I expect that 131.70 will be firmly held, then the buy on dips will help to push the price up, may be to [132.50 - 132.90].