Dear all visitors to my blog,
Because I have a number of things to do other than trading until February 2013. I think I will be back to US-Stock market and resume to new posts in my blog at about the first week of March 2013.
Wishing all visitors safe and successfully trading.


Symmetrical Triangle Breakout?

It seems that the Symmetrical Triangle Breakout would work this time and prices could target 1426.00 area.
There is a bullish count on EW that the prices movement after the 1385.43 on Nov. 28 could be a wave [iii]. This scenario may become reality when the area 1423.00-1425.00 to be conquered in next 2 days.

Meanwhile Stochastics on the daily chart show an approaching into the overbought area - warning of a near-term pullback, maybe, after the resistance area 1423.00-1425.00, the three remainder indicators are just bullish and encouraging to buy (on dip).


If you think there is an analog of prices after the June 04 and that one after the November 16, 2012...

Bulls took a big rebound when they got the MA-200-days support and closed the day at a bit higher than the recent high. Bulls are expected to challenge the area 1424.00-1425.00, where the MA-50-days meet with a confluence of Fibonacci levels and a trend line.
If you think there is an analog of prices after the June 04 and that one after the November 16, 2012, that both pullbacks are supported at 38.2% retracement. So you may wonder if Bulls can make 1440.00 before a next pullback?


Consolidation or pullback?

I see a cluster of Fibonacci in the area 1393.00-1395.00 and I expect that area will be "hard to be broken-down" before the area 1377.00-1383.00 mentioned in the recent post.
I keep an open-mind to the idea that prices may consolidate instead of making a "real pullback" in next a few days.

If you think there is an analog between the direction change since the June 04 and the November 16, 2012, there were 4 consolidation days (but not pullback) before the move to break MA-50 in June.


Hourly frame hints a breather or pullback may be necessary before bulls could go further to challenge the level 1425.00

Bulls have made a big progress when drawing prices in a 5-wave impulsive pattern, claimed back the MA-200 days and overcame though a cluster of major resistances in the area 1400.00-1409.00 marked by a rectangle in red color. Looking ahead we can notice the next resistance of bulls is at 1415.00, the 78.6% retracement of the recent fall from 1434.27. But the real challenge for bulls, I think should be around 1425.00, where the MA-50 days meet with a confluence of Fibonacci levels and a trend line.

Take a glance at some indicators of SPX in an hourly frame! It seems that they are in the overbought area, extended, or nearly so and therefore some breather or pullback may be necessary before bulls could go further to challenge the level 1425.00.
In case of a pullback seen in next Monday or Tuesday, I expect the area 1377.00-1383.00 around MA-200 days will provide a good support.



The bounce from the Friday's low looks to form an inverted H&S and the target of it may be 1380.00, which is in the vicinity of MA-200 days at 1282.18.
There is a count that considers the Friday's low be the wave iii of a wave [iii]. It supports the idea that this bounce would make a wave iv before a wave v of a wave [iii] in the main down trend.

There is a H&S pattern in SPX that looks not symmetrical however may still legit with down target at

DJ-30 daily: Though the Friday's close looks bullish as the SPX chart, I stay expecting the H&S pattern should finally works out at the target 12390.13.


Not yet reached the bottom, stay outside or short on a bounce!

11:55AM Update
SPX prices pierced the Fib. 61.8% of the rise from June' low to Sept.' high and bounce to make a bear trap. It may be a sign of a short-term bottom. Hope that Bears who entered the short had managed well the profit taking or stop loss.


DJ-30 is finishing the H&S pattern. The cluster of H&S target with 78.6% retracement of June's low to October's high of 2012 with 38.2% retracement of October, 2011' low to October, 2012' high is around 12390+/-. This 12390+/- would serve as a short term support for bulls and a profitable bounce could be expected there (May be in need of a conjunction with a Greece deal). My personal view is the bottom of this bearish market can only be found when the US finds a solution for the fiscal cliff.
The equivalence of 12390+/- from DJ-30 in SP-500 is the area 1320.00 - 1310.00
Conclusion: Not yet reached the bottom, stay outside or short on a bounce!

EUR/USD seems finished the wave iv of a bigger wave 3. Today decline would be the beginning of the wave v of 3. Wave 3' target may be 1.2550-1.2500


The T2108 index is telling me "we are near a short-term bottom", however that should not be a real bottom that marks a reversal of a monthly-trend

All major indexes are officially in long term bearish when the major long term trend line from Oct. 4, 2011 and MA-200 days were in turn broken down.
Below I show the daily charts of DJ-30 as an example:

The DJ-30 weekly chart looks more ugly with the price pierced down the longer term trend line originated from the low of March, 2009.

The chart showing 4 indicators from SPX daily hints that a major bottom is not in.

The T2108 index is telling me "we are near a short-term bottom", however that should not be a real bottom that marks a reversal of a monthly-trend.

 Stocks are considered risky, meanwhile EUR/USD and Crude are in bouncing. Silver is well advancing and Gold should be prepare to follow the Silver to be a hidden place.


First targets 1386.00-1388.81 if it bounce...

We can say that 1373.03 & 12743.85 for SPX and DJ-30 correspondingly held yesterday. That is the 3RD days these levels hold and the markets may try the opposite way.
If the market wants to bounce, the first target may be 1386.00-1388.81. The 1402.00 level would be a  very hard resistance.

SPX daily: The market is still in the process of finding a short-term bottom. The indicators I showed are in the oversold area. A falling wedge is seen in RSI and Stochastics. That conditions favor a big bounce in sort-term if the recent low can hold.
Another cautious view is no evidence of a bottom was seen and the market could fall further (normally he need to see a positive divergent)  .

Watching T2108 also hint that a short-term bottom may be around. 


1373.03 & 12743.85 critical points

1373.03 is a critical support level of SPX. If bulls can hold it today, I expect to see Wednesday in a bounce-mode. Otherwise, a downward acceleration may be next.

For sure of a bounce next, bulls may also need to see 12743.85 of DJ-30 to be firm.


Small bounce then a fall over

Not yet the bottom! Prices may take a small bounce to test 1393.00 and fall over then.
Don't rule out that 1373.03 can be taken away by bears.


Expecting the 1380.++ of MA-200 days will supply a better support

SPX may find some supports at the yearly trend line connecting the lows of Oct, 2011 and June, 2012. A bounce is expected, however may be short lived. Expecting the 1380.++ of MA-200 days will supply a better support.

EUR/USD is meeting with the 1.2730+/- the Fibonacci mix of the major down-trend  and the big bounce from the July's bottom and the MA-200 days. Expecting a bounce today or tomorrow?


If it bounce, 1425 may be today's target

EUR/USD is bouncing after making the low at 1.27635. If this bounce is sustainable, the support was a bit higher than the area I expected  1.27547-1.27383.

SPX - Yesterday's low was bought as the market made higher high and higher low. With pre-market's today in green color, bulls are taking advantage.
For day trade, bulls may target the area 1425.00 to meet the trend-line cap.


Rebound was over, bears would target area 1400.00

The EUR/USD continues dropping and it would not favor the US stock markets until the drop meets a support.
I expect a support found in the area 1.27547-1.27383 where is the mix of  MA-200 days and 38.2% retracement of the rally since 7/24/2012 to 9/14/2012.

The precious metals and crude oil have made new lows in the European session, that increases the odds that US stock market would dive today.
I tend to think that the bears would like to try one more time the area 1,400.00.
If a lower low than 1403.28 could be made in a few coming days, I may hope that the correction from 1474.51 would have finished in double zigzag and the market would prepare for a big bounce.


Is the bounce finished or will it target 1441?

Is the bounce an ABC and finished? Bears need to win 1405.95 to confirm.
In a more bullish scenario, Bulls may push prices up to 1441.00 - this level is a cluster of Fibonaccis and I expect it will be a firm resistance.

EUR/USD: The low 1.28827 has been taken away by bears. Next target may be 1.28400.


More bearish ahead?

The bounce at Wednesday's open was short-lived and bulls' disappointment. Looks like 1400.00 will be tested. We may see again a bounce at this support, however, I expect that bears will increase the short on any bounce before we meet the MA-200.
We need to see a real oversold status when RSI-14 plunges into the 10-20 area combining with T2108 trapped around 20 for a while before entering longs. This condition may be found when the prices continue the drop down to and supported by MA-200.

EUR/USD looks Head & Shoulders pattern and the down target would be 1.28850

From a bigger picture (daily) the bounce from below the MA-50 considered failed and the low at 1.28827 will be retested.


Rebound imminent?

The low of last Friday was at 1403.28. Because this low almost satisfies the multi-supports:
Fib 50=1401.88
Lead Spand B=1399.96
Support Line (Blue)=1403.00,
A short-term rebound seems due, meanwhile the downside risk remains.
A bounce, if any, would target 1426.60-1433.70.


Bounce and drop?

If I see a bounce before reaching 1400.00. I suspect that bounce would be capped by around 1422.00, then most probably, price may drop again to try the support 1400.00 or lower (strong support MA-200 around 1376.00).
This process may extend for a few days.


Can bulls find a good support at around 1400.00 before the MA-200?

Here is 1400.00 stands for:
- The support line in the next few days span (blue) formed by connecting the high of Oct. 11, 2007 and the high of April 2, 2012.
- The lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud (Leading Span B).
- The 50% of the retracement of the impulsive rise from 1329.24 to 1474.51.


1420.00 hold or not?

A good bounce was seen when the index registered a lower low at 1422.06.
I will maintain the views of multi-zigzag correction from the high Sep.14 as long as 1420.00-1425.00 could hold. It means a continuous-bounce may target 1460.00-1463.00.
If bulls can not hold 1420.00 today, I suspect that the prices will go to test the MA-200 at around 1376.00 in next few days.


The descending channel formed from Sept. 14 (purple) is important

With the LOD on Friday at 1429.85, There exists a possibility that the correction from 1474.51 is not a single ABC (Zigzag) but could be double or triple zigzag.
With this approach, the index could make another dip to contact with the lower line of the descending channel formed from Sept. 14 (purple) and bounce up to the upper line of the channel before bouncing down again. This scenario could expect a lower target around 1420.00-1425.00 before a bounce up to around 1460.00.
The more bullish scenario is to say the correction ABC had finished and 1464.02 was the end of the 1-ST wave and 1429.85 would mark the end of the 2-ND wave. Bulls need to take away 1464.02 to confirm the scenario.

The Elliott wave counting on the 15 min chart would be changed like this:


Continue to bounce or a further pullback possibly to the area 1450.00-1445.60

Yesterday I said: "we may get short-term-target for bull as to end the wave iii=(v) at 1463.20 or 1470.50. I suspect that 1470.50 would be more possible..."
The price movement looks that wave iii=(v) had finished at 1464.02 just ticks higher the value 1463.20.
The pullback printed a LOD at 1452.63. This may be already or not yet the target of the corrective move of the wave iv. So we have two scenarios:
1. Price continue to bounce from yesterday's low to make a wave v.
2. Price will make a further pullback possibly to the area 1450.00-1445.60 to finish the corrective wave iv before resuming the bullish move to make a wave v.

Sorry for the chart posting late! I lost the internet connection, then had to go out and just be back.


Support: 1456.49, target: 1463.20 or 1470.50?

As the price movement unfolds, the rise from the end of the minor-wave ii at 1427.24 looks to be able to divide by minuet-waves. If this can be the best interpretation, we may get short-term-target for bull as to end the wave iii=(v) at 1463.20 or 1470.50.
I suspect that 1470.50 would be more possible meanwhile the 1456.49 would be a good support before the target.


Pullback if any would target firstly 1444.00

11:45 AM
There was only a minor pullback at open today. Bull is really strong! Can a pullback happen tomorrow? I doubt it. Seems peoples accept to buy high to sell higher. The 5 min chart looks a bull flag forming? Bulls are very probably going to challenge 1470.96 before a meaningful pullback. 
I got time to recalculate the maximum target of the minor 5-wave pattern that I labelled from i to v and I found that the max-value of v can be 1456.12, however it is not the imperative and v could be legitimately finished at 1455.51, the yesterday's high.
The big question to me now is where would be the target/firm-support of a pullback if it happens. My first suggest would be 1444.00. Let see!

Expecting a pullback around the area 1442.88-1444.00

10:55 AM
Bulls don't want a pullback at 1444.00. Instead they pushed the prices up to the area 1448.25-1453.61 I mentioned yesterday. Bulls are strong, however technically, the rally looks a bit stretch. The expecting pullback must happen around 1453.61 +/- by late today or tomorrow. So, it's not safe to chase the price at this 1449.xx.
The rise from the low 1425.53 looks like a minor 5-wave pattern. I don't know if this is the beginning of a bigger impulsive movement or it's only a bounce of ABC form of a bigger decline from 1474.51. In any case, I expect to see a pullback around the area 1442.88-1444.00 to make a wave 2 of the impulsive rise or B of the correction.
Seems we are going to see a price pop-up at the open today but I consider it as a selling but not a chasing. The buying-chance would come after we see a pullback to a reasonable level.