7.07.2012

A fifth contact with the higher band of a symmetrical broadening top may be?

With Friday's deep pullback, I think the 5 wave pattern had finished at 1374.81. The price got a bounce at 1348.03 when it made a contact with the sub-medium-term line connecting 1414.48 and 1363.46 (violet) now acting as a support. It is more comfortable to me to count the price action after 1374.81 to 1348.03 and Friday's close as an abc 3 wave pattern after a 5 wave up from 1309.27. This abc is the premise for the counter-trend rally since 6/4/2012 to be called double zigzag if price can make a 5 wave pattern up in next few days. 
The bullish final stage count as above might be well invalidated if price closes next Monday below 1344.56.




Another argument which favors a bullish scenario next few days is a symmetrical broadening top which was confirmed by price contact with lower band before the Friday's intraday-bounce. Those who believes this pattern should expect the fifth contact with the higher band next.
However if Mr. Market decides to go down next Monday and he lets bears win 1344.56, I think I would better favor bears to 1326.20 or lower. 




EUR/USD Medium Term
The EUR/USD pair broke down a bear flag on Thursday 7/5/12 and the Friday's follow-through fall confirmed the pattern and hinted that we will see further falling ahead.
A rebound after 6 consecutive down days is likely to be seen (However not necessarily!). The rebound if any will favor stock markets in short term.

Those who believe the Head & Shoulders Pattern likely believe that 1.1360 would be the target of this fall. On my evaluation, the fall may end at about the 1st week of September 2012. 

The falling of the pair EUR/USD will be no good for stock markets at all.




(One of my old posts on EUR/USD Head & Shoulders topic can be found at http://cyclestockmarketwinner.blogspot.com/2011/11/hope-of-rebound-becomes-dimmer_22.html)

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