Bulls look too weak!
Adding the 4th scenario: If SPX close above 1401.50, but less than 1405, I expect a next green day, however that bull is considered weak.
The bounce must happen today and >0.5% for a healthy bullish market. If the bouce to happen after 3 down days from below the trend line, things would be different.
Taking into consideration of many factors: The duration of our bullish market since 10/4/2011, the gain of this bullish rally, indicators reading, EUR/USD and Europe markets behavior..., it seems to me that a topping process is in the forming.
I would like to present my 3 scenarios for the SPX:
1. If bulls can camp at [1405 -1407] zone today, they are sure to be able to advance one more day at least.
2. If bulls stay in the [1395-1398] zone today, markets will be in indecision mode.
3. If bears can push the index lower to the [1391 - 1389] zone today, the bull-party is over and any bounce would be a short.