We are in the 4th summer since the markets bottomed in 2009. If we pay attention to the size (better in percent scale) of the summer corrections and their duration, we have following figures of SP-500 to perusal.
2009 summer: (956.23-869.23)/956.23*100 = 9.1%, duration 18 trading-days.
2010 summer: (1219.80-1010.91)/1219.80*100 = 17.1%, duration 47 trading-days.
2011 summer: (1370.58-1074.77)/1370.58*100 = 21.6%, duration 108 trading-days!
2012 summer: The correction got 10.9% to its lowest point (A) and has been undergoing
57 trading-days since
An inference based on extrapolation of data may hint a further correction and more time are needed to see the bottom of this summer.
If the corrective wave (C) has the same size as wave (A), the target would be 1363.46 - (1422.38-1266.74) = 1207.82. The duration of wave (A) was 43days. Suppose the same duration applied to wave (C), then I expect this summer correction would end at around August 20.
If the correction takes all its way down to touch and respect the lower-line of the bullish channel, the target should be between 1126.57 and 1115.xx depending on how long this correction terminates.
SPX 30min
To favor the reading that the fall since 4/2/2012 will unveil an Elliott wave (A)(B)(C)
pattern correction, I believe the 50days MA
(1346.00) will be a hard resistance in case extended bounce next Monday.
If the price
falls, the supports will be 1318.xx=78.6% of C and 1315.43=50% of (B).
No comments:
Post a Comment