5.07.2012

A profitable bounce is imminent. However more down ahead is expected

SPX traditional view
All targets of the sells (the Rising Wedge 1380.xx and the H&S 1372.xx) met. I speculated a bounce targeted 1380.xx at 13.03pm when SPX was at 1370.0x. However it didn't happen. It was a warning sign for my bulls. May be a profitable bounce can only be found at 1357.xx -1358.xx.
When we take a look at the daily chart we see many bearish factors are in:
Price crossed down the MA20 and MA50 and goes deeper into the Ichimoku Cloud.
RSI, Stochastic and MACD are bearish crossover. The MACD Histogram revealed only the 1st red bar which implies that further downward movements will be seen.
For the trading with traditional view, a bounce will be considered as a chance to sell or short.

The Elliott bullish view
Need to see a big bounce on Monday before 1359.67 (the low of 4/23/12) and that bounce must lead to a huge up day next. I personally don't favor this view.

The Elliott bearish view
If 1357.38 (the low of 4/10/12) is not respected in next few days, the wave C of the correction ABC will be unveiled and I expect the next target of bears would be 1312.xx.

Trading
A continuous down day Monday would be a buy for aggressive bulls who play the rebound.
A rebound Monday would be considered limited and may offer chances to sell.

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