12:55 PM update
The support 123.09 has been held for 1 hour. This support is the gathering point of MA20 and Fib38.2. I think it may be safe to make pilot long. I bought EDC @73.04.
SPY daily: From a big picture, we can see the resistance to the upside is about 126.90 from the downtrend line connecting highs of 7/7 and 7/22 unsuccessfully tested on 10/27 and 12/7.
A hope for the seasonal year-end rally can only supported if bulls win the high of 12/7 at 127.26
On the downside move, bears will face the supports from the 12/8 low and fib levels of the rebound from 11/25-12/7 which are 123.65, 123.09, 121.78, 120.47.
- European leaders end Brussels summit with treaty deal. That says a highly consensus for a radical long term solution to fix the debt crisis is found.
- ECB took steps Thursday to ease credit conditions for troubled eurozone banks.
- Effect of Seasonal year-end rally benefit and mood.
- The recent threat to downgrade Eurozone sovereign ratings including Germany and France of Standard and Poor's.
- Eurozone banks are facing problems of liquidity when the shortfall capital is revised up to €115bn from €106bn of stress tests in October.
- Markets these days seem be driven more by news than by technical TA.
- If the Brussels summit deals could satisfy Standard & Poor's and they decide to suspend their downgrade process, that would be a very good new for bulls for the next week.
- I am slightly bullish to neutral until I hear a good new from S&P. A bad new from him would favor a pullback.
My Game Setting for Monday 12/12/1011
I am slightly bullish to neutral until I hear a good new from S&P. A bad new from him would favor a pullback.
Bulls: Buy if 3 major Europe index are green more than 0.5% (CAC 40, DAX, FTSE 100) and SPY opens in green or just in slight red (> -0.50)
Bears: Short if 3 major Europe index and SPY are diving more than -0.50.
Reviewing the Game Setting for Friday 12/9/2011
My view is that the bullish short term trend might have changed. Therefore, I will consider any bounce as a chance to short. However I may also try a bounce at an important support.
Bears: Short till 123.20 met. Short again at a bounce. => Bad setting! Short @125.20 covered @125.80
Aggressive Bulls: Buy if 123.20 hold well
Accumulated Score from 11/23/2011: 2.70 - 0.60 = 2.10
My mistake is illustrated in the chat below