As a trader I'm better prepared for a bounce though I tend to think a bounce could be short lived.

Reviewing my Game Setting Friday
I tend to think that SPX/SPY will touch the support level at Fib61.8% today. I guess that Bears will take a short breather after the 115.83 and markets will be in a small bounce or consolidation before a further slide.
Bears: Short at a rebound when SPY > 118.00.
Bulls: Take a break.
My SPY@118.00 short position opened on Nov 23, 2011: If market slide below 115.83, will try to cover @115.66. If 115.66 missed, will try to cover below 115.83. If Bears cannot win the 115.83 today, the position will be hold. => When I saw signs of a bounce in Europe markets, I continuously adjust my cover price up, however I didn't act decisively enough. I would better covered it at the open @116.50. Finally I covered SPY at 117.5. I got only 0.50 point instead of 1.50!


Outlook for Monday Nov 28 


1. EURUSD daily: Bulls are not easily give up and 1.3407 would be their first mark of this bounce. It may need about 2-3 days to get there. Naturally this bounce favor stock markets. Bears may need more time to win 1.3146.

2. SPY daily: The bearish channel looks steep however many indicators are in oversold territory for the 2-nd day. It says that this fall is terrible however a bounce of some kind may be due and it will become certain  when the bounce of EURUSD is maintained.

3. My Game Setting
I try to show it in the charts today.

8:23 AM
The SPY pre-market shows a big bounce of more than 2.5% supported by a huge bounce of DAX (>3.5%). A technical bounce accelerated by short covers and by a fresh hope about debt crisis action or/and by any other explanation?
But most important to me is the bounce is strong and I will increase the anticipated resistance of this bounce to 121.00 and will consider intraday pullbacks as chances to go long.

If Bears Win the 115.8 This Friday, Do They Need A Breather?

I need to modify the scores system:
The old: Refer to my post 11/21/2011.
The new: It's the simplest. It's the difference of the close and open prices of the positions when my setting triggered. Ex, my setting opened short SPY@118.00 on Nov 23, 2011 and will try to close it at 115.80 in the next trading day. Should it happens, the setting will score 2.20 points.

Reviewing my Game Setting Wednesday:
I had expected a rebound to pick up some profit and to be able to get into shorts at safer prices. However it seems that this scenario remains only in imagination.
Bears: Short if SPY < 118.5. Overnight if Europe markets are in red. => Triggered @118.00.
Bulls: Long if SPY > 120.35 and Europe markets are in green.

1. EURUSD daily (11:05 PM, Nov 24 continuing) guided by a descending channel and is a continuation of a Head&Shoulders pattern. Seems it's idea for those who target 1.3146.

2. SPY hourly. It's obvious that the major bearish channel is unable to help an orderly retreat of Bulls. A steeper bearish channel is forming and it looks dangerous. No any substantial buying. There just a little hope about a limited bounce or a consolidation at the support 115.83 of Fib61.8. New resistances ~ 118.5 - 119.20.

3. Good news and bad news
German borrowing costs rise above U.K.'s
Fitch cuts Portugal to junk status
Dexia takes emergency funding
S&P getting closer to downgrading Japan
China: factory output growth to slow


3. My Game Setting (May be changed 1-2 hours before the markets open)
I tend to think that SPX/SPY will touch the support level at Fib61.8% today. I guess that Bears will take a short breather after the 115.83 and markets will be in a small bounce or consolidation before a further slide.
Bears: Short at a rebound when SPY > 118.00.
Bulls: Take a break.
My SPY@118.00 short position opened on Nov 23, 2011: If market slide below 115.83, will try to cover @115.66. If 115.66 missed, will try to cover below 115.83. If Bears cannot win the 115.83 today, the position will be hold.

9:22 AM
Update the cover target of the SPY short: 115.83
10:13 AM
Europe Markets bounce well. Must respect this bounce. Cover SPY short @117.50. Adjust the Re-Short target @118.5.
10:56 AM
With Europe Markets bounce more than 1.20% (CAC-40, DAX, FTSE-100) I think we may get a chance to short SPY at a better price than the one I covered @118.5.

Hope about a rebound is turning faint.

Reviewing my Game Setting Tuesday

My Game Setting (If I don't mention overnight, day-trade understood)

I think the rebound if any may be short lived (2 days max) and would be limited by the resistant range 1209.4-1215.7. => Intraday only, too weak to keep a green at close.

Aggressive Bulls: If SPY sinks below 119.25, long at it's breaking up this level. Or long at SPY pop-up above 119.25. Keep overnight if Europe markets are green and 121-121.5 are distanced. Must sell at green Wednesday. => Good setting (+1), long 119.30, closed 119.90. Because no green in Europe seen, overnight exposure was not triggered.

Cautious Bulls: Long if SPY > 120.35  => Not triggered.

Aggressive Bears: Short if SPY retraces downward from 121-121.5. => not triggered.

Cautious Bears: Short if SPY < 118.65. => SPY bounced back from intraday low 118.52. Poor setting (-1).

My integrated score from Nov 21, 2011: +1+1-1 = +1

1. EURUSD daily seems in indecision mode and framed by 1.3407 - 13567. However this candlestick count from last 8 may be very bearish: 2 selloff, 2 indecision - Doji, 3 bearish - Shooting Star.

2. SPY hourly seems to form a mini bearish channel at the lower boundary of the major one. May be bears will try the Fib50 at 118.5 once more.

2'. SPX daily: The two consecutive days closed lower than MA50 are adding more bearish to the market's outlook.

3. My Game Setting
I had expected a rebound to pick up some profit and to be able to get into shorts at safer prices. However it seems that this scenario remains only in imagination.
Bears: Short if SPY < 118.5. Overnight if Europe markets are in red.
Bulls: Long if SPY > 120.35 and Europe markets are in green.


5:50 AM updates
EURUSD 1.3567 broken down, 1.3146 expected. Europe markets dive -0.4 -1.xx %. It's highly possible that bears will master the US markets today.

10:00 AM
The EURUSD shows that Bears will definitely be ambitious to win 1.3146 to finish a perfect Head & Shoulders Pattern.

11:54 AM
Europe markets dive -0.9x -1.5x %! My keeping the short overnight triggered. SPY may target the Fib61.8@115.8 the next trading day.

12:15 PM
May be 116.71 is today's low. Seems some Bears are booking profit and some Bulls try to put a toe in water.

The rebound if any may be short lived (2 days max) and would be limited by the resistant range 1209.4-1215.7

Reviewing my Game Setting Monday
(I will change the scores system: Excellent for overnight positions which profit the gap next day (+2). Good for profit day-trade setting (+1). Neutral for non-profit day or overnight setting (0). Poor for losing day-trade setting (-1). Bad for overnight positions which lose the gap next day (-2). The Perfect (Score of +10) will be assigned to a call for a trend change of 15 days duration (only higher highs or lower highs seen for 15 day). The system is applied from this Monday).

Yesterday I said: "I would be better prepared for both scenarios, up or down". => Good preparation.

Aggressive Bull: Longs as long as SPY > 121.23 (Who believes the rebound). => Not happened.

Cautious Bull: Longs if SPY > 122.75.  =>Not happened.

Bear: Shorts if SPY < 121.23. => Short @120.20, cover @119.00, Profit 1%. Good setting (+1).

My integrated score: +1


1. EURUSD daily is in indecision mode and framed by 1.3407-1.3567.

2. SPY hourly is at the lower boundary of the bearish channel. A rebound will be challenged by the resistant levels ~ 121-121.5. A continuous diving will face supports 117-115.8 (The book target of triangle and the Fib 61.8 correspondingly).

2'. SPY daily, a very bad sign is it's price crossed down and closed below the MA50!

3. My Game Setting (If I don't mention overnight, day-trade understood)

I think the rebound if any may be short lived (2 days max) and would be limited by the resistant range 1209.4-1215.7

Aggressive Bulls: If SPY sinks below 119.25, long at it's breaking up this level. Or long at SPY pop-up above 119.25. Keep overnight if Europe markets are green and 121-121.5 are distanced. Must sell at green Wednesday. 

Cautious Bulls: Long if SPY > 120.35

Aggressive Bears: Short if SPY retraces downward from 121-121.5.

Cautious Bears: Short if SPY < 118.65.

The rebound if any may enjoy a short life time (2 days max) and has to face the 1-st resistances range 1240-1245.

11:00 AM
The Bear setting works perfect! (Bear: Shorts if SPY < 121.23). I think SPY target for today can be 118.5 (Short at open ~ 120.2).


Reviewing my Game Setting Friday.

"I expect a rebound day based on reasons I said above". >> Most times of the trading day are in rebound mode, DJ-30 +22% and SPX's slightly down -0.04%.  

Agressive Bull: Day trades the rebound and re-entries longs at a lesser amount for a probable overnight. >> Fairly good for day trade portion. Don't know the fate of overnight longs.
Caussious Bull: Plays the rebound and limited to day trade. >> That's me. I played the rebound and made very little profit, shifted to cash EOD.
Bear: If you had not yet closed your short at my call 12:46 PM, you can close it at appropriated moment today or adjust the stoplost! Gives way to bull at least one day! >> No commend.

1. EURUSD daily seems to challenge the neck line (brown) of the head and shoulders pattern for the reversal. If it can break out the neck line and win the resistances 1.3567 then 1.3697, a triangle pattern limited by 2 pinks lines can be developed. Otherwise the bears could challenge 1.3407 again and continue the HS pattern.

2. SPY hourly is in a bearish channel either limited by 2 pink lines or 2 blue lines. If it bounds up, the hard resistances are in a range 124.3-125.3. If it continues to sink, the supports are in a range 118.5-119.2.

3. This statistic is just an ornament of my technical analysis. I don't take it serious though I tried to simulate the following factors: Price development of last 5 days, MA50 last 55 days, Price vs Fibonacci levels last 35 days, Price vs MA50 last 2 days. Case 1 (black line) price below MA200 and case 2 no care of MA200 vs price. Data TC2007 available from Jan 1962, all symbols included into the scan, %day1 corresponding to Nov 18 gain, %day2 ~ this Monday gain (gain compares to the previous day close). Case 1 detected 7, Case 2 detected 11. The chart shows the average gains. The statistic slightly favors a rebound this Monday.

5. My biased market reading: We may see a rebound this Monday and it may be a real one to keep all major markets in green. The rebound if any may enjoy a short life time (2 days max) and has to face the 1-st resistances range 1240-1245. 

But I told myself not to expect a healthy rebound 

if a green in Europe markets is not seen!

4. My Game Setting

I would be better prepared for both scenarios, up or down.

Aggressive Bull: Longs as long as SPY > 121.23 (Who believes the rebound). 

Cautious Bull: Longs if SPY > 122.75

Bear: Shorts if SPY < 121.23