9/3/2012
Looks bullish before a possible bearish ending with the following aspects:
- Most of time since 6/7/2012 the prices are above the MA20.
- The prices are in a rising channel (yellow).
- Bollinger bands are contracting, in this case may hint a spike up later on.
- Looks as in the forming of a Rising Wedge, which eventually will be bearish.
- The last target of bulls may be 1450.00 as the chart anticipate.
- Timing of the bearish reversal may be the end of September.
7/30/2012
SPX weekly indicators
RSI and Stochastics look bullish, MACD is about to be bullish, +DI is below -DI however looks to make higher high.
SPX daily
The relationship between price and 50day MA and 200day MA is bullish. Price is about to break out (need > 1390) the bearish trend line (yellow). 50day MA looks to make a bottom.
Price action since 1266.74
I see 4 higher lows and 4 higher highs, price broke out a resistance line (white) to make new high since 1266.74.
It seems to me that the higher odds of summer correction had been finished.
What would be the size and the duration of this summer correction?
7/1/2012 Update
6/25/2012
Looks bullish before a possible bearish ending with the following aspects:
- Most of time since 6/7/2012 the prices are above the MA20.
- The prices are in a rising channel (yellow).
- Bollinger bands are contracting, in this case may hint a spike up later on.
- Looks as in the forming of a Rising Wedge, which eventually will be bearish.
- The last target of bulls may be 1450.00 as the chart anticipate.
- Timing of the bearish reversal may be the end of September.
7/30/2012
SPX weekly indicators
RSI and Stochastics look bullish, MACD is about to be bullish, +DI is below -DI however looks to make higher high.
SPX daily
The relationship between price and 50day MA and 200day MA is bullish. Price is about to break out (need > 1390) the bearish trend line (yellow). 50day MA looks to make a bottom.
Price action since 1266.74
I see 4 higher lows and 4 higher highs, price broke out a resistance line (white) to make new high since 1266.74.
It seems to me that the higher odds of summer correction had been finished.
What would be the size and the duration of this summer correction?
We are in the 4th summer
since the markets bottomed in 2009. If we pay attention to the size (better in
percent scale) of the summer corrections and their duration, we have
following figures of SP-500 to perusal.
2009
summer: (956.23-869.23)/956.23*100 = 9.1%, duration 18 trading-days.
2010
summer: (1219.80-1010.91)/1219.80*100 = 17.1%, duration 47 trading-days.
2011
summer: (1370.58-1074.77)/1370.58*100 = 21.6%, duration 108 trading-days!
2012 summer: The correction got 10.9% to its lowest point (A) and has been
undergoing 62
trading days since 4/3/2012 6/29/2012
An inference based on extrapolation of data and channels
may hint a further correction and more time are needed to see the bottom of
this summer.
The price is extending it counter-trend rally this week
which is likely to compose a double zigzag.
A symmetrical geometry approach would suggest that 1395.00 at July 11 may be the cap of the counter-trend
rally and 1241.00
at September 11 would
be the end of this summer correction.
A similar approach using following
arguments
- Wave
[A][B][C] will be composed by a double zigzag.
- Duration
of [C] = duration of [A].
- [A][B][C]
will be capped by 78.6% retracement of the fall from 1422.38 to
1266.74.
Then the evaluation target for the 2012 summer correction
could be:
1. Size = 1389.07 – (1422.38 – 1266.74) = 1233.43 (a 13.28% correction).
2. Duration:
11 trading days added to 6/25 would bring us to July 11, 2012 to finish wave [C]=(B).
And 43 more trading days likely needed to finish wave (C), then the duration of
the correction would be 112
days or at September
11, 2012 .
The worst case when the correction takes its way
down to touch and respect the lower-line of the bullish channel, the target should
be between 1126.57 and 1115.xx depending on how long
this correction terminates.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We are in the 4th summer
since the markets bottomed in 2009. If we pay attention to the size (better in
percent scale) of the summer corrections and their duration, we have
following figures of SP-500 to perusal.
2009 summer: (956.23-869.23)/956.23*100
= 9.1%, duration
18 trading-days.
2010
summer: (1219.80-1010.91)/1219.80*100 = 17.1%, duration 47 trading-days.
2011
summer: (1370.58-1074.77)/1370.58*100 = 21.6%, duration 108 trading-days!
2012 summer: The correction
got 10.9% to its lowest point (A) and has
been undergoing
57 trading-days since 4/3/2012 6/22/2012
An inference based on extrapolation of
data may hint a further correction and more time are needed to see the bottom
of this summer.
If the corrective wave (C) has the
same size as wave (A), the target would be 1363.46
- (1422.38-1266.74) = 1207.82. The
duration of wave (A) was 43days. Suppose the same duration applied to wave
(C), then I expect this summer correction would end at around August 20.
If the correction takes all its way
down to touch and respect the lower-line of the bullish channel, the target should
be between 1126.57 and 1115.xx depending on how long
this correction terminates.
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