I tend to think that SPX/SPY will touch the support level at Fib61.8% today. I guess that Bears will take a short breather after the 115.83 and markets will be in a small bounce or consolidation before a further slide.
Bears: Short at a rebound when SPY > 118.00.
Bulls: Take a break.
My SPY@118.00 short position opened on Nov 23, 2011: If market slide below 115.83, will try to cover @115.66. If 115.66 missed, will try to cover below 115.83. If Bears cannot win the 115.83 today, the position will be hold. => When I saw signs of a bounce in Europe markets, I continuously adjust my cover price up, however I didn't act decisively enough. I would better covered it at the open @116.50. Finally I covered SPY at 117.5. I got only 0.50 point instead of 1.50!
Outlook for Monday Nov 28
1. EURUSD daily: Bulls are not easily give up and 1.3407 would be their first mark of this bounce. It may need about 2-3 days to get there. Naturally this bounce favor stock markets. Bears may need more time to win 1.3146.
2. SPY daily: The bearish channel looks steep however many indicators are in oversold territory for the 2-nd day. It says that this fall is terrible however a bounce of some kind may be due and it will become certain when the bounce of EURUSD is maintained.
3. My Game Setting
I try to show it in the charts today.
8:23 AM
The SPY pre-market shows a big bounce of more than 2.5% supported by a huge bounce of DAX (>3.5%). A technical bounce accelerated by short covers and by a fresh hope about debt crisis action or/and by any other explanation?
But most important to me is the bounce is strong and I will increase the anticipated resistance of this bounce to 121.00 and will consider intraday pullbacks as chances to go long.
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