4.07.2012

A bounce may happen from 1398 or a bit lower, however I suspect that the duration and the size of the bounce would be less than the previous

12.11pm
My stock pick FAS, AGQ, GDX.


12.05pm
Look like a mini double bottoms pattern is forming.


6.45am
With SPX E-mini continues it's ugly look at 1375 at this moment, I would like to adjust the bears target down to [1371.50 - 1381.00].
A sharp drop at open will confirm that the 1422.38 is the EW5/3/3/3/3 Diagonals Pattern Termination and we may now witness a correction.

It's a warning sign when price breachs the lower rising trend line.
A bounce is expected at this point, however I would like to place a question mark to the duration and the size of it when it is to happen from below the lower rising trend line.

The hourly chart also hints a bounce next Monday, however I would like to pay attention to the descending cap line on MACD which is displaying a negative divergence.

Trading:
If no sharp drop seen at open (sharp drop = big gap > 0.50%) then there may be a trade-able bottom for a bounce. Buy breakout 1401.60. Stop-loss breakdown 1393.00. Bounce targets [1408 - 1410] or two days or a contact with descending cap line on MACD, whichever comes first.
If a sharp drop seen at open or 1393 doesn't hold, I would like to short and my target will be 1386.87.

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