It seems that yesterday's low marked the end of wave-4. To confirm this, price need to bounce today and print a higher value than 1391.74.
In this scenario, I expect price will make a wave-5 in the area 1396.30-1405.00.
(Wave-4 also can be somewhere below the value 1381.37 in the area 1376.36-1381.37. To make this, price need to pullback into the area and bounce up higher than 1391.74. In this scenario, price is expected to make wave-5 somewhere between 1392.00 and 1404.64).
My trading plan
I see Silver is making new highs meanwhile Gold, Crude and EUR/USD are trying to test the recent highs.
If I scare the highs, I would better stay sideline. I definitely will not short this market until the US and European Central Bankers announce their solutions this Wednesday and Thursday. To short this market based on expectation that Central Bankers will disappoint markets is very risky to me.
7.31.2012
7.29.2012
A pullback may be a buy
Wave-3 of the rise from 1329.24 may have been finished at 1389.19 when it hit against the 78.6% retracement of the fall from 1422.38 to 1266.74. We need to see a pullback to form wave-4 on Monday 7/30 to confirm the scenario.
A pullback if any would find support in the area 1374.78-1380.29, this area if not holds may call the next support at 1370.34.
My trade setting
I will not chase the rise if market opens in green.
I would be from hardly to not open a short to follow a pullback at market's open because I suspect the pullback would be shallow.
If my feeling of "pullback then bounce" is consolidated, I would buy when supports hold and expect a wave-5 termination at somewhere around 1395.50- 1304.64.
Medium term update
http://cyclestockmarketwinner.blogspot.com/p/spx-medium-term.html
A pullback if any would find support in the area 1374.78-1380.29, this area if not holds may call the next support at 1370.34.
My trade setting
I will not chase the rise if market opens in green.
I would be from hardly to not open a short to follow a pullback at market's open because I suspect the pullback would be shallow.
If my feeling of "pullback then bounce" is consolidated, I would buy when supports hold and expect a wave-5 termination at somewhere around 1395.50- 1304.64.
Medium term update
http://cyclestockmarketwinner.blogspot.com/p/spx-medium-term.html
7.27.2012
May be a small up then a small down
Look like a 5-waves pattern is revealing for the bounce from 1329.24 to 1363.13 (may be 1363.13 +... by the rise today).
On the upside, 1369.44 could be next target of bulls but not necessarily today.
On the downside, bulls will be safe if 1354.82 holds.
If 1351.48 breaks down, further dips will follow.
On the upside, 1369.44 could be next target of bulls but not necessarily today.
On the downside, bulls will be safe if 1354.82 holds.
If 1351.48 breaks down, further dips will follow.
7.26.2012
A bounce would face area 1350.12-1352.85, if successfully breaks out will target area 1359.30-1363.00
A bounce would face area 1350.12-1352.85, if successfully breaks out will target area 1359.30-1363.00.
A dip will seek a support in the area 1327.70-1329.24 and the next at 1326.20.
Attention!
In a dip case, if 1329.24 couldn't hold, the bounce a-b-c was done with c at 1343.77 and the index should be down further to make wave iii. If 1329.24 holds, the index may bounce up to make a wave ii in a form of a double zigzag pattern.
A dip will seek a support in the area 1327.70-1329.24 and the next at 1326.20.
Attention!
In a dip case, if 1329.24 couldn't hold, the bounce a-b-c was done with c at 1343.77 and the index should be down further to make wave iii. If 1329.24 holds, the index may bounce up to make a wave ii in a form of a double zigzag pattern.
7.25.2012
A bounce is imminent
Seems that the decline from 1380.39 to 1329.24 is a 5-waves pattern. If it's correct and be named wave i, it's time to expect a bounce to make wave ii.
I see a new price channel (yellow) that formed by connecting 1374.81 with 1380.39 and 1325.41 with 1329.24. The channel also favors a bounce.
A bounce to make wave ii could be short-lived and target somewhere between 1350.12-1363.00.
If the market decides to make a triple zigzag (another ABC after 1329.24), the target of the bounce could be higher at about 1385.00.
I see a new price channel (yellow) that formed by connecting 1374.81 with 1380.39 and 1325.41 with 1329.24. The channel also favors a bounce.
A bounce to make wave ii could be short-lived and target somewhere between 1350.12-1363.00.
If the market decides to make a triple zigzag (another ABC after 1329.24), the target of the bounce could be higher at about 1385.00.
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