The rebound if any may enjoy a short life time (2 days max) and has to face the 1-st resistances range 1240-1245.

11:00 AM
The Bear setting works perfect! (Bear: Shorts if SPY < 121.23). I think SPY target for today can be 118.5 (Short at open ~ 120.2).


Reviewing my Game Setting Friday.

"I expect a rebound day based on reasons I said above". >> Most times of the trading day are in rebound mode, DJ-30 +22% and SPX's slightly down -0.04%.  

Agressive Bull: Day trades the rebound and re-entries longs at a lesser amount for a probable overnight. >> Fairly good for day trade portion. Don't know the fate of overnight longs.
Caussious Bull: Plays the rebound and limited to day trade. >> That's me. I played the rebound and made very little profit, shifted to cash EOD.
Bear: If you had not yet closed your short at my call 12:46 PM, you can close it at appropriated moment today or adjust the stoplost! Gives way to bull at least one day! >> No commend.

1. EURUSD daily seems to challenge the neck line (brown) of the head and shoulders pattern for the reversal. If it can break out the neck line and win the resistances 1.3567 then 1.3697, a triangle pattern limited by 2 pinks lines can be developed. Otherwise the bears could challenge 1.3407 again and continue the HS pattern.

2. SPY hourly is in a bearish channel either limited by 2 pink lines or 2 blue lines. If it bounds up, the hard resistances are in a range 124.3-125.3. If it continues to sink, the supports are in a range 118.5-119.2.

3. This statistic is just an ornament of my technical analysis. I don't take it serious though I tried to simulate the following factors: Price development of last 5 days, MA50 last 55 days, Price vs Fibonacci levels last 35 days, Price vs MA50 last 2 days. Case 1 (black line) price below MA200 and case 2 no care of MA200 vs price. Data TC2007 available from Jan 1962, all symbols included into the scan, %day1 corresponding to Nov 18 gain, %day2 ~ this Monday gain (gain compares to the previous day close). Case 1 detected 7, Case 2 detected 11. The chart shows the average gains. The statistic slightly favors a rebound this Monday.

5. My biased market reading: We may see a rebound this Monday and it may be a real one to keep all major markets in green. The rebound if any may enjoy a short life time (2 days max) and has to face the 1-st resistances range 1240-1245. 

But I told myself not to expect a healthy rebound 

if a green in Europe markets is not seen!

4. My Game Setting

I would be better prepared for both scenarios, up or down.

Aggressive Bull: Longs as long as SPY > 121.23 (Who believes the rebound). 

Cautious Bull: Longs if SPY > 122.75

Bear: Shorts if SPY < 121.23

A rebound is very probable and it may be strong enough to make a green day.

Reviewing my Game Setting yesterday:
I wrote: "It's hard to me to imagine a green day today." >> Perfect anticipation.
Bear: Shorts at  rebounds.  >> Perfect.
Bull: High risk to play the rebounds. It's for aggressive ones only. >> Skill bulls made a little bit.

1. EURUSD hourly: Price bounces up and down between the Support 1.3407 and Resistance 1.3567 to form a range trading. For the latest 3 days bull has holding well above the support 1.3407. Bull can expect a positive day when price has crossed up through the MA50 to head to 1.3567.

2. SPX daily may find the short term support at a convergence of MA50 and Fib38.2 (1,205.60-1,209.60). Considering this is a combination support plus 2 big red days in a row which make the SPX hourly very oversold and therefore may due for a rebound day.
Pay our attention to a fact that from Oct 27 (the interim top day and the beginning day of a down channel limited by pink lines) all the rebounds from the lower end or from the middle line of the channel enjoyed 2 days alive.

My Game Setting:

I expect a rebound day based on reasons I said above.

Agressive Bull: Day trades the rebound and re-entries longs at a lesser amount for a probable overnight.
Caussious Bull: Plays the rebound and limited to day trade.
Bear: If you had not yet closed your short at my call 12:46 PM, you can close it at appropriated moment today or adjust the stoplost! Gives way to bull at least one day!

SPX looks like slightly bearish

EURUSD daily shows an ideally head and shoulders pattern which is few steps away from the perfect model if it can visit 1.3146. Yesterday's high of the bounce couldn't win the resistance Fib38.2@1.3567. Next target of bear could be to win the Fib23.6@1.3407.

SPX daily has made 2 consecutive lower lows. The fact that it couldn't make a higher high yesterday is really a challenge to bull.

SPX 15' shows that for 4 consecutive days Nov 11-16 only lower highs and lower lows are seen. The price seems to be guided by the bearish channel (pink lines) but not the bullish channel (yellow lines). SPX lost 1.94% in just 2 hours and 8 minutes showed how strong the bear.

A moment to review my game setting yesterday:

If it's a green day. >> Only intraday green
Cautious Bull: Books profit, at least half of positions if bull believes an intraday-green in the next day. >> Perffec if he closed all his longs when he saw the green intraday.
Aggressive Bull: Adding intraday longs and day trade. >> That was me who adding longs as I quoted in Cobra's forum. Closed half when it got profit and closed the remaining when I wake up at 3:00 and seeing my half profit evaporating. Would be ideally if you closed it at seeing green.
Cautious Bear: Waiting mode. >> Lost a chance.
Aggressive Bear: Shorts at bounce back if this bounce back happens near the end of the day. >> If you could do it, you would be perfect.

If it's a red day. >> bounce up from opent till 13:52
Bull: Closes positions at appropriate moments (bounces). >> That was perfect.
Bear: Shorts the market. >> You may get stress however you was happy at the end of day and seems you gonna have another happy day. Why I couldn't do it?

My game setting today
It's hard to me to imagine a green day today.
Bear: Shorts at  rebounds.
Bull: High risk to play the rebounds. It's for aggressive ones only.

10:35 AM
I had played the rebound by entering TNA and just closed it at a small profit. I have not been shorting yet. I think it'd be safely to see SPX greening first then to see it starts making a pull-back.
12:46 PM
Congrats all the Bears who shorted when SPX was a little green at 10:40 (I did not - poor me!).
Just to remind Bears, It's 2 days in big red! It is very probable a rebound day tomorrow, so bears can book profit now. Knowing enough is enough.
Aggressive bulls may long at this low for tomorrow's rebound.

I would like to review my yesterday Game Setting: If markets go red (It had been almost red the first 2 hours)

Cautious Bear: Closes the shorts they opened yesterday. >> It was a good call. Bear booked profit at a  more than the previous day close.

Aggressive Bear: Adds intraday shorts. >> Not bad if he was swift enough. Could be painful to be late in closing their position. Wonderful if closed all at about 11:30'.

Cautious Bull: Waits to see if confirmed green tomorrow. >> No commend.

Aggressive Bull: Buys at the intraday bounce from the lower slant. >> That was me who bough the bounce (but not from the slant - that was not happened). I made profit.


Nov 16 2011
EURUSD is bouncing solidly after 2 consecutive selloff days. The bounce could be short in magnitude but may be 2 days alive. Anyway, the bounce may favour another green day of stock markets.
SPX price vs MA20, 50, 100,  looks bullish when price has closed above these MA for 3 consecutive days.
SPX against resistances: There is a convergence of resistances from 1268 - 1273 made of from upper slant of the symmetrical triangle, Upper monthly downtrend resistant line and MA200.
SPX reading: Slightly bullish. One more day in green is probable.

Game setting: 


If it's a green day.
Cautious Bull: Books profit, at least half of positions if bull believes an intraday-green in the next day.
Aggressive Bull: Adding intraday longs and day trade.
Cautious Bear: Waiting mode.
Aggressive Bear: Shorts at bounce back if this bounce back happens near the end of the day.


If it's a red day.

Bull: Closes positions at appropriate moments (bounces).
Bear: Shorts the market.

The intraday trading:

11:32 AM (11:32 PM - VietNam) No mood to trade. Go to bed.
Happy trading all visitors.

I Need To Adjust My Game Setting.

When I am drafting this post, Europe markets are in red. The US markets are just followers of Europe ones these days and it is more comfortable to forecast another red day of US ones.

Reviewing my Trading Idea / Game Setting last 4 days I am not satisfied with last three ones. I failed to catch the bounces of Nov 10 & 11 and lost the chances to join bears camp yesterday. I even made a mistake to buy on dips yesterday.

Seems SPX is still in range trading for a while. Prices are limited by the slants of the pennant/triangles. Because the range is becoming narrower and narrower, I think bear safely counts to 2 to close their positions and waits to see what gonna happen the third day to decide.

My Game Setting Today: If markets go red
Cautious Bear: Closes the shorts they opened yesterday.
Aggressive Bear: Adds intraday shorts.
Cautious Bull: Waits to see if confirmed green tomorrow.
Aggressive Bull: Buys at the intraday bounce from the lower slant.

10:35 AM  

We may see some things different today: US markets gonna drag (I wanted to say: advance) Europe ones.