Dear all visitors to my blog,

Because I have a number of things to do other than trading until February 2013. I think I will be back to US-Stock market and resume to new posts in my blog at about the first week of March 2013.

Wishing all visitors safe and successfully trading.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout?

It seems that the Symmetrical Triangle Breakout would work this time and prices could target 1426.00 area.
There is a bullish count on EW that the prices movement after the 1385.43 on Nov. 28 could be a wave [iii]. This scenario may become reality when the area 1423.00-1425.00 to be conquered in next 2 days.

Meanwhile Stochastics on the daily chart show an approaching into the overbought area - warning of a near-term pullback, maybe, after the resistance area 1423.00-1425.00, the three remainder indicators are just bullish and encouraging to buy (on dip).

If you think there is an analog of prices after the June 04 and that one after the November 16, 2012...

Bulls took a big rebound when they got the MA-200-days support and closed the day at a bit higher than the recent high. Bulls are expected to challenge the area 1424.00-1425.00, where the MA-50-days meet with a confluence of Fibonacci levels and a trend line.
If you think there is an analog of prices after the June 04 and that one after the November 16, 2012, that both pullbacks are supported at 38.2% retracement. So you may wonder if Bulls can make 1440.00 before a next pullback?

Consolidation or pullback?

I see a cluster of Fibonacci in the area 1393.00-1395.00 and I expect that area will be "hard to be broken-down" before the area 1377.00-1383.00 mentioned in the recent post.
I keep an open-mind to the idea that prices may consolidate instead of making a "real pullback" in next a few days.

If you think there is an analog between the direction change since the June 04 and the November 16, 2012, there were 4 consolidation days (but not pullback) before the move to break MA-50 in June.

Hourly frame hints a breather or pullback may be necessary before bulls could go further to challenge the level 1425.00

Bulls have made a big progress when drawing prices in a 5-wave impulsive pattern, claimed back the MA-200 days and overcame though a cluster of major resistances in the area 1400.00-1409.00 marked by a rectangle in red color. Looking ahead we can notice the next resistance of bulls is at 1415.00, the 78.6% retracement of the recent fall from 1434.27. But the real challenge for bulls, I think should be around 1425.00, where the MA-50 days meet with a confluence of Fibonacci levels and a trend line.

Take a glance at some indicators of SPX in an hourly frame! It seems that they are in the overbought area, extended, or nearly so and therefore some breather or pullback may be necessary before bulls could go further to challenge the level 1425.00.

In case of a pullback seen in next Monday or Tuesday, I expect the area 1377.00-1383.00 around MA-200 days will provide a good support.